Toshio Masuda


Toshio Masuda, Writer, Commentator, and International Economist

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gStraight from the shoulder g by Toshio Masuda Aug 11, 2001
( Free of charge to the people I met)

My Predictions Came True Again!

On August 8, I gave a lecture at the Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, Hawaii, that was kindly arranged by The Honorable John Waihee, the former governor of the State of Hawaii.

Those in attendance at the lecture were most interested in knowing how the Japanese economy would react after the new Prime Minister Koizumi took over the Japanese Cabinet. I said that what Koizumi is doing is entirely against the principles of a market economy. Koizumi says "There is no economical growth without Structural Reform". There is a consensus that the economical problem in Japan that there is a reduction of consumption. Increasing consumption is driven by a government policy of increasing the public investments. But Koizumi has set a ceiling on public invenstments at 30 trillion Yen, far less than the government funded investments of the past. So I say "There is no hope of recovery for the Japanese economy now" and I conclude "So, Koizumi's economical policy is the best in the world".

Some people in attendance thought I masde a mistake using a wrong word when calling Koizumi's policy "the best". One questioner said, "No, no, Mr.Masuda, the worst, not the best, right?". I replied saying, "The best, I mean it". The reason I believe Mr.Koizumi's policy is "the best" is that this century is the world of "Excessive Supply". The productivity of the world is such that there is always sufficient. So, the fundamental principle of the world economy is "The consumer is King". Japan has lost economic leadership since the end of the war. Japan is so to speak the Supplier and the US is the Consumer. Consequently, the US is the leader of the world economy. So, when the US economy is down, the world, especially Japan, should not just seek for its own interests by ignoring the US economy. Japan focuses on its own if they run their own economy and US suffers, sooner or later, the Japanese economy suffers from the shortage of sales to the US. When the US is in recession, Japan, the second largest economy in the world should focus on the US problem first and then decide on what action Japan should take that would be Japan's own interests. Since April 2001, when Koizumi administration began, the US economy was in fear of recession. If Koizumi had taken a strong step into a kind of massive public investments to stimulate Japanese economy, a large sum of funds in the US stock and bond markets would have flowed into Japan. The result would have been a hard landing and recession in the US that would have ultimately screwed up the Japanese economy. So, although government stimulation is the worst economy policy, Koizumi is making the best choice of bad options, yet he is limiting the level of government investment so not to over stimulate the economy. I predict that a year afeter Koizumu's policy is pursued, the Nikkei would go up.

Also I said "Before Sept.12,2001,(the date that the trial in US district court in New York for the suspects in the bombing of the US Embassy in Kenya and Tanzania was to begin) US would be attacked in some way".

Anyone wanting to redistribute Straight from the Shoulder pieces or excerpts from the texts should direct their request in advance to the Toshio Matsuda Office at Sunraworld, Ltd. (Tel: 81-(0)3-3955-2121).


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Written by Toshio Masuda