Toshio Matsuda, Commentator & Intl Economist
(This issue is submitted to a Washington D.C., Seattle, and Zurich think-tank as the English edition of “Straight from Shoulder”.)
"Straight from the shoulder " by Toshio Masuda-Samurai Lecturer
( Free of charge to the people I met)
Samurai MASUDA's common sense differs from that of the current world's.
Recently the Fed's chair, Powell, explicitly acknowledged that recession is “certainly a possibility”. He's also confirmed the Fed's commitment to bringing down inflation, unconditionally and using whatever means it takes.
Most of the big Wall Street companies believe that chances of near-term recession have increased.
The yield of the US 10-year bond-one of the indicators of inflation-has kept high at around 3.10%-3.31%.
In this scenario no one expects the US GDP to grow and the share prices to rise-except Samurai MASUDA!
Economy rests on two pillars: the monetary policy and the fiscal policy.
If the Fed's tight monetary policy is being eased while its fiscal policy is being aggressively bolstered, the US economy must grow.
We see some signs of the monetary supply chain being slackened.
The crude oil futures hovered around $107.00 to $110.00 per barrel, logged its third straight weekly loss and headed for its first monthly loss since November 2021.
Oil price-the greatest contributor to inflation-is easing.
As long as the war in Ukraine continues and the danger of Taiwan war looms not far behind, the military budgets of the US and other countries will go on rising.
Military expenditure provides the most effective public investment stimulus to the economy.
Samurai MASUDA hopes for the economic growth of the US and others that the cold war between West and East will continue, hopefully with minimum human casualties.
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Written by Toshio Masuda