Toshio Matsuda, Commentator & Intl Economist
Straight from the Shoulder
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(This issue is submitted to a Washington D.C., Seattle, and Zurich think-tank as the English edition of “Straight from Shoulder”.)

"Straight from the shoulder " by Toshio Masuda-Samurai Lecturer
December, 2022
( Free of charge to the people I met)

The majority of market analysts, the investment banks and - above all - the majority of fed’s governors confirm that increasing number of states are reporting decline in economic activities, which typically signals recession.
The market consensus on the probability of the US recession occurring over the coming year is now 80% - the gloomiest prediction seen since the 2020 Covid pandemic.

The events of 2022 hinted at the risk of mass selling the US equities and turning towards treasury bonds instead.
Goldman Sacks talks about hard landing scenario with S&P500 dropping by further 20%. Most bankers believe it has not hit the bottom as yet.

Financial market is like a pool of water laced with fish bait.
Large quantity of light water (generous supply of money and low interest rates)
makes it easy for fish to move around and be active (the economy to flourish).
A pool with dense, sludgy water hampers the fish movement.

Fed’s interest rate for the coming FOMC (12/12 -13) will be set at 0.5%, down from the fourth consecutive figure of 0.75%.

Currently the investor has historically high amount of saving, since public spendings go too far .

When the private sector has too much money ready to invest and the government spends excessive amounts, how could you possibly worry about recession?

When share price drops low enough, the investor buys dips!

As for share prices, December promises the highest upward trend for 2013.

Whatever price you pay, you risk nothing!

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